ASR - A Global Partner for the Sustainable Management of Coastal and Marine Resources


Location: Singapore

Type of Project: Tsunami Numerical Modelling

Client: Nanyang Technical University, Singapore

ASR Projects- Singapore

(Left) Tsunami wave propagation through the South China Sea from a large earthquake on the Manila Trench. (Upper Right) A map of Singapore showing the locations where water level data was extracted from the model. (Lower Right) Modelled tsunami water levels near Singapore were on the order of 1 m or less and were heavily attenuated before reaching Singapore itself.

Project Overview:

The Manila Trench represents a potentially large tsunamigenic earthquake source within the South China Sea. ASR Ltd was asked by researchers at Nanyang Technical University in Singapore to develop a numerical model to explore the possible effects of this tsunami source on Singapore.

Project Outcomes:

The model results showed that tsunami propagation across the South China Sea is strongly attenuated as the sea becomes shallower in the south-western corner. Initial tsunami wave heights of over 10 m at the source are less than 1 m close to Singapore and reduced even further in the shallow waters of the Singapore Straits.

In contrast, coastal regions close to the deeper basin of the South China Sea such as mainland China, Hong Kong, Hainan Island and Vietnam are quite prone to the direct impact of this potential tsunami source. Further modelling is required to quantify the tsunami hazard to vulnerable communities, ports and infrastructure along these coastlines.

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